Opportunities arise from climate change

- Information taken from a summary of the Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel o


Climate change could cause abrupt and irreversible impacts. There is 90% certainty among 2,500 leading climate scientists from across 130 countries that such changes are not natural, but that human activity is leading to this dangerous change in our climate. This was the conclusion arrived at by the UN’s Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 17 November in the last of the four parts of its Fourth Assessment Report. The IPCC and its Report are treated around the world as the last word on the science of climate change, the vulnerability it causes and what needs to be done for mitigation.

The IPCC delivered its strongest warning yet, calling the rise in global temperatures “unequivocal” and its effects potentially irreversible. But the report said reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not overly costly and could be accomplished through “technologies that are either currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades”.

Stabilising carbon dioxide levels by 2050 could be achieved at the cost of decreasing global GDP by up to 5.5% - an annual slowing of 0.12% - or it could even increase by 1%.

“Countries have to act to ensure that carbon dioxide emissions start dipping by 2015 if temperatures have to be stabilised and climate change risks reduced,” the chair of IPCC, R K Pachauri, said while releasing a summary of the report for policy makers.

The text of the report IPCC put out is fiercely fought over by all countries as it holds deep implications for international policies and negotiations on the exact action to be taken by different sets of countries to reduce the threat from climate change. The synthesis of the fourth assessment report suffered no different fate from its earlier parts, with negotiators trying hard over the three-day meet of IPCC in Valencia to stomp in and strike out phrases till the last moment possible.

While US negotiators reportedly wanted the word ‘irreversible’ struck off the text, India and other developing countries demanded greater emphasis on the importance of adapting to climate change. The US, which till date has refused to reduce its carbon footprint under the UN-mandated treaty Kyoto Protocol, acted to ensure the pressure doesn’t build up any further on it to change its stance at the forthcoming, critical UN convention on climate change in Bali in December 2007.

Coming against the backdrop of the recently revealed proof that the developed countries had done trifle little even after signing the Kyoto Protocol to actually reduce their emissions, the report did state that mitigation and adaptation had to be undertaken together to achieve stabilisation of temperatures.

There are long-term and wider economic opportunities. There’s no question reducing emissions will make us better off, and potentially there could be long-term economic benefits as well. The effects of climate change are unavoidable, but adaptation and mitigation can significantly reduce the risks. Delaying action would see the window of opportunity narrow significantly while increasing “the risk of more severe climate change impacts”.

Following are excerpts from the Report of (1) “Selected examples of adaptation by sector” and (2) Selected examples of key sectorial mitigation technologies, policies and measures, constraints and opportunities”. These selected examples will provide some indication of the types of investment opportunities that are emerging or might emerge providing financial benefits for investors.

Selected examples of planned adaptation by sector

Adaptation option/strategy as follows:

Water

Expanded rainwater harvesting; water storage and conservation techniques; water re-use; desalination; water-use and irrigation efficiency.

Agriculture

Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety; crop relocation; improved land management, e.g. erosion control and soil protection through tree planting.

Infrastructure/settlement (including coastal zones) 

Relocation; seawalls/ storm surge barriers; dune reinforcement; land acquisition and creation of marshlands/wetlands as buffer against sea level rise and flooding; protection of existing natural barriers.

Human health

Heat-health action plans; emergency medical services; improved climate sensitive disease surveillance and control; safe water and improved sanitation.

Tourism

Diversification of tourism attractions & revenues; shifting ski slopes to higher altitudes and glaciers; artificial snow-making.

Transport

Realignment/relocation; design standards and planning for roads, rail, and other infrastructure to cope with warming and drainage.

Energy

Strengthening of overhead transmission and distribution infrastructure; underground cabling for utilities; energy efficiency; use of renewable sources; reduced dependence on single sources of energy.

Selected examples of key sectoral mitigation technologies

Sector key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available are shown below. The key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialised before 2030 are shown in italics.

Energy Supply

Improved supply and distribution efficiency; fuel switching from coal to gas; nuclear power; renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) (e.g. storage of removed CO2 from natural gas);

CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewable energy, including tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar, and solar photovoltaics.

Transport

More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; cleaner diesel vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; non-motorised transport (cycling, walking); land-use and transport planning*;

Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries.

Buildings

Efficient lighting and daylighting; more efficient electrical appliances and heating and cooling devices; improved cook stoves, improved insulation; passive and active solar design for heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery and recycling of fluorinated gases;

 Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar photovoltaics integrated in buildings.

Industry

More efficient end-use electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling and substitution; control of non-CO2 gas emissions; and a wide array of process-specific technologies;

Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture.

Agriculture

Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions; improved nitrogen fertiliser application techniques to reduce N2O emissions; dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use; improved energy efficiency;

Improvements of crop yields.

Forestry/ forests 

Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; harvested wood product management; use of forestry products for bioenergy to replace fossil fuel use;

Tree species improvement to increase biomass productivity and carbon sequestration. Improved remote sensing technologies for analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change.

Waste 

Landfill CH4 recovery; waste incineration with energy recovery; composting of organic waste; controlled waste water treatment; recycling and waste minimisation; biocovers and biofilters to optimise CH4 oxidation.